AFL Round 18: Kangaroos vs Eagles – Tips, Odds & Predictions

September 17th at 7.10pm – Metricon Stadium, Queensland

Last year, the Eagles suffered a surprise defeat to the Hawks in the final round of the season to cough up a position in the top four and ultimately cost them a chance at the 2019 Premiership. This year’s equivalent wasn’t as egregious, but their loss two rounds ago to the Bulldogs will most likely be rued by them as the game which cost them a spot in the top four. A game and a half clear of sixth, they are guaranteed a top-five position come the season’s end, but with the Tigers and the Cats both sitting marginally ahead of them in third and fourth respectively and playing bottom four teams this weekend, it will take a miracle for the Eagles to sneak in and get a double chance.

To give themselves a chance they need to make sure they win their own game, but it’s hard to imagine any other results. North Melbourne has won just once since Round 2 and appears to be becoming less competitive by the week. In Round 17 they endured a 64-point loss to Fremantle, and against the far more dangerous Perth-based side they could be in for a similarly heavy defeat.

The Eagles are very short in the betting odds but we think they’re still value at the line.

West Coast -38.5 at $1.91

The Kangaroos lost by 64 points to Freo last week so it’s impossible to back them to cover this line.

Total match points over 117.5 at $1.91

This total should be covered courtesy largely of a big West Coast score.

West Coast -58.5 at $4

There’s some good value to be found in the alternative line markets, and the Eagles to win by nearly ten goals at $4 looks good to us.

Head to Head Record

• Played 50
• West Coast has won 28
• North Melbourne has won 22

Last time they met

• Round 19, 2019 – West Coast 18.13 (121) defeated North Melbourne 10.12 (72)

General Statistics

• Josh Kennedy has enjoyed a pretty good time of things lately against the Kangaroos – he has seven goals in each of his last two games against them.
• The Kangaroos have conceded more points than every other team in the AFL bar Adelaide.
• Tim Kelly played perhaps his best game for the Eagles last week after a few quiet matches, accumulating 30 touches and kicking a goal in a best on ground performance.

The Eagles head into this game needing to win to keep their slim top four hopes alive, while the Kangaroos will be keen for the season to end after a disastrous few months. There’s a hefty differential in both motivation and talent in this game, and the result is likely to reflect that. Don’t expect the Kangaroos to put up too much of a fight here – the Eagles should run out the winner by in excess of 40 points.

Bet on the Eagles now